Posts tagged ‘property market’
Before you read the key results below, it’s worth us pointing out the following:
- This survey was fielded from 29th November to 4th December 2010
- There were 5,932 total respondents. 5,287 of these were homeowners
- 2011 appears to have got off to a solid start indicating possible increase in confidence since the end of 2010
- We are reporting record levels of traffic, searches and leads in early January across Zoopla.co.uk
The uncertainty around the impact on the overall economy in 2011 of the austerity measures and the continuing drought in mortgage finance availability created a toxic combination for housing market confidence in late 2010. However there is every reason to expect confidence to grow as this year progresses providing the economic outlook doesn’t worsen and banks start to loosen their lending criteria.
Here are the main results from the survey:
• 54% of homeowners expect house prices to rise, down from 81% one year ago
• 1 in 3 expect property prices to fall in 1H 2011, up from 1 in 4 three months ago
• Fewer owners plan doing any home improvements and will spend less in 2011
• 92% see mortgage financing as no easier to obtain now than 3 months ago
• Scottish most upbeat over housing outlook for 2011, N Irish far less optimistic
Homeowner confidence in the property market outlook fell to its lowest level in more than two years in December, amid concerns over the government’s austerity measures and the availability of mortgage finance. According to our latest Zoopla.co.uk Housing Market Sentiment Survey, only 54% of homeowners surveyed expected house prices to rise over the coming six months, down sharply from 63% three months ago and 81% a year ago.
According to the survey, those surveyed now expect average house prices to rise by only 1.9% over the next six months, down from a predicted 3% rise three months ago and reflecting the drop in confidence. And the number of homeowners who expect property prices to fall over the first half of 2011 now stands at 1 in 3 (33%) up from 1 in 4 (25%) only three months ago.
UK homeowners, however, curiously remain more confident about the prospects for the value of their own homes compared to those of their neighbours, with those surveyed expecting average growth in property values in their local area of only 1.9% over the next six months versus 2.5% for their own homes.
The survey also highlighted that fewer homeowners plan to carry out home improvements over the next six months, with only 37% of respondents stating an intention to do any works, down from 42% three months ago and 48% at the start of 2010. And the percentage of homeowners who plan to spend at least as much this year as they did last year on improving their properties now stands at only 68%, down from 77% at the beginning of 2010.
The survey results show just how severely the lack of access to mortgage finance is impacting the health of the property market and confidence in it. Only 8% of those surveyed believe that it is now easier to get financing than it was three months ago, with more than 9 out of 10 seeing no improvement in the availability of financing over the past three months.
Confidence in Scotland appears higher than the rest of the UK, with 63% of Scots expecting house prices in their area to rise over the next six months, although this is still down from 71% three months ago. England is some way behind at 54% whilst less than half of homeowners in both Wales (49%) and N Ireland (42%) expect house prices to rise in the next six months.
Follow this link to download the Q4 2010 Zoopla Sentiment Survey press release and graphs.
We have reached an important point in a market seeking direction and despite the most recent 16 months of gains, only half of the value lost in the prior 16 months has been recouped.
This juncture may well determine the direction of house prices for the months to come. Our data show us that we have come through two periods of equal length and opposing directions. UK house prices have risen steadily for the past 16 months, bouncing off their lows of March 2009 and recovering half of the value lost during the prior 16 month period of price declines from the November 2007 market peak.
It is entirely possible that we may now have a similar length period of time where the market hovers without a clear direction.
The average UK home is now worth £218,705, up £21,667 (11.02%) since March 2009. However this figure remains more than £20,000 below the November 2007 peak, when average house prices reached £239,063, showing that, despite the rebound over the last 16 months, only half the ground lost over the prior 16-month period has been made up.
England - prices have recovered more ground than elsewhere, having climbed 11.46% since March 2009, with the average home in England now worth £226,342, but still well below the level reached in November 2007 of £246,714.
Wales – prices have been much slower to rebound, up only 7.07% since March 2009 to a current average value of £154,521, a long way short of the £173,388 peak in November 2007.
Scotland – property values have climbed 9.12% on average to £156,217 over the past 16 months, having fallen 18.1% in the prior 16-month period when they reached a high of £174,805.
Whilst the dramatic fall in house prices during the 16 months from the November 2007 high to the March 2009 low affected all areas of the country, the rebound in the 16 months since has been far more selective.
South East – property prices have bounced back strongly and have regained most of the value lost during the downturn. House prices in the South East, which peaked at £291,120 in November 2007 had fallen sharply by 18.24% to £238,017 by March 2009, and have since risen by 17.57% to £279,848.
North East – in contrast the North East saw average house prices drop 16.11% from £182,390 in November 2007 to £153,002 in March 2009, and have since only managed to regain 4.98%, standing today at £160,627.
London – the market has seen the most dramatic turnaround, with average house prices today at new highs and above the levels seen in November 2007. Having fallen by 16.06% from a high of £410,577 in November 2007 to a low of £344,635 in March 2009, London house prices have made up all the ground lost in the downturn and now stand at £418,802. London house prices have risen by a remarkable 21.52% over the past 16 months.
Looking at property type…
The rebound in house prices since March 2009 has been strongest for semi-detached properties, which have risen by 12.83% over the past 16 months. The average semi is now worth £191,019. At the other end of the scale, flats across the UK have been much slower to rebound and have only gained 7.78% in value over the past 16 months, having fallen by 17.34% in the prior 16-month period. The average flat in Britain is now worth £199,573, down from a peak of £224,021 in Nov 2007.
Average house prices by Country
|Country||Jul 2010||Mar 2009||Last 16 months||Nov 2007||Prior 16 months|
Average house prices by Region
|Region||Jul 2010||Mar 2009||Last 16 months||Nov 2007||Prior 16 months|
|Yorks & Humber||£145,783||£134,758||+8.18%||£164,654||-18.16%|
Average house prices by Property Type
|Property type||Jul 2010||Mar 2009||Last 16 months||Nov 2007||Prior 16 months|