Posts tagged ‘House Prices’
Comprehensive Spending Review to hit housing market
The Chancellor will set out the Government’s four-year public spending plans in the Spending Review at 12:30 on Wednesday 20 October. This announcement will reveal just how extensive the cuts to government spending will be. It’s anticipated that a significant number of public sector job losses will happen over the coming years. This could mean that areas with high rates of public sector employment are likely to take a disproportionately hard knock over the coming months.
In areas where more people are employed by the state, rising unemployment will lead to more homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages as well as dampening demand from buyers, which will put downward pressure on house prices in these areas. House prices are likely to be far more resilient in areas with a smaller share of public sector employees.
Here are areas in England and Wales where house prices are most and least likely to be hit the hardest:
Top 20 areas likely to be most affected
| Rank | Local Authority Area | % of workforce employed in the public sector | Current avg. property value | 3 year % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford | 46 | £326,396 | -3.61% |
| 2 | Denbighshire | 45 | £146,289 | -9.06% |
| 3 | Cambridge | 43 | £306,521 | -6.88% |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 43 | £117,623 | -8.53% |
| 5 | Hastings | 43 | £164,255 | -5.19% |
| 6 | Ceredigion | 42 | £185,569 | -7.53% |
| 7 | Canterbury | 40 | £224,699 | -10.11% |
| 8 | Stafford | 40 | £188,162 | -8.54% |
| 9 | West Dorset | 40 | £271,555 | -9.22% |
| 10 | Merthyr Tydfil | 39 | £94,854 | -7.85% |
| 11 | Sefton | 39 | £170,518 | -9.66% |
| 12 | Liverpool | 39 | £132,083 | -10.21% |
| 13 | Greenwich | 39 | £276,512 | -3.64% |
| 14 | Taunton Deane | 39 | £214,130 | -9.03% |
| 15 | Lewisham | 39 | £265,822 | -3.42% |
| 16 | Swansea | 38 | £151,570 | -9.47% |
| 17 | Eastbourne | 38 | £207,468 | -7.88% |
| 18 | Newcastle upon Tyne | 38 | £166,890 | -9.10% |
| 19 | Blackpool | 37 | £114,300 | -14.58% |
| 20 | Gwynedd | 37 | £155,043 | -8.70% |
Source: Zoopla.co.uk / ONS
Top 20 areas least likely to be affected
| Rank | Local Authority Area | % of workforce employed in the public sector | Current avg. property value | 3 year % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | City of London | 4 | £468,962 | 3.14% |
| 2 | Crawley | 12 | £211,235 | -5.82% |
| 3 | Corby | 13 | £132,191 | -8.61% |
| 4 | North Warwickshire | 14 | £173,686 | -9.31% |
| 5 | Broxbourne | 14 | £260,362 | -6.00% |
| 6 | NW Leicestershire | 14 | £175,327 | -8.16% |
| 7 | Bracknell Forest | 14 | £271,346 | -6.80% |
| 8 | Hillingdon | 15 | £289,043 | -5.04% |
| 9 | Tamworth | 15 | £151,501 | -9.11% |
| 10 | Three Rivers | 16 | £389,658 | -5.34% |
| 11 | South Holland | 16 | £152,377 | -10.41% |
| 12 | Harborough | 16 | £239,865 | -8.49% |
| 13 | Slough | 16 | £202,182 | -8.93% |
| 14 | Thurrock | 17 | £186,756 | -7.21% |
| 15 | Hertsmere | 17 | £367,525 | -5.16% |
| 16 | Tower Hamlets | 17 | £329,663 | -3.74% |
| 17 | Trafford | 17 | £239,271 | -9.41% |
| 18 | Woking | 17 | £344,991 | -5.66% |
| 19 | Flintshire | 17 | £164,483 | -9.84% |
| 20 | Hounslow | 17 | £328,716 | -5.47% |
Source: Zoopla.co.uk / ONS
As always, please feel free to share and use this information, all we ask is that you credit the source as Zoopla.co.uk / ONS and link to either Zoopla.co.uk or blog.zoopla.co.uk. Thank you
House prices fall, as does market confidence – Zoopla Sentiment Survey
Today the Halifax released their latest house price figures for September – house prices fell 3.6% last month, (the largest monthly fall since their index began). Echoing that, our latest Housing Market Sentiment Survey (Q3 2010) shows the ongoing mortgage drought has started to have a real impact on consumer confidence, with optimism about the outlook for the housing market dropping sharply. The shortage of funding on offer is preventing many people who do want to buy from being able to purchase a home, particularly first time buyers – vital for the health of the property market.
Our Sentiment Survey shows that confidence amongst homeowners about the outlook for the property market has fallen sharply amid growing concerns over the availability of mortgage finance. The survey reveals that only 63% of homeowners now expect property prices to rise over the next six months, compared to 78% of homeowners three months ago, showing a staggering decline in confidence in the housing market.
Key findings:
- Number of homeowners expecting house prices to rise falls sharply from 78% to 63%
- 1 in 4 now expect property prices to fall further, up from 1 in 10 three months ago
- 89% say it is no easier to obtain mortgage financing now than it was 3 months ago
- Average growth predicted for house prices in the next six months dropped to only 3% from 5.5% three months ago
- Results reaffirm that homeowners in the UK view their home as their castle with 25% of those surveyed said they expect house prices in their local area to fall over the next six months…
- …only 21% expect the value of their own home to fall over the same period
- Average rise in values was predicted as 3% for the local neighbourhood, homeowners surveyed expect their own homes to rise by 3.4% on average indicating that they expect their own home to perform 13% better than their neighbours
- 9 out 10 respondents (89%) state that it is now no easier to get financing than it was three months ago
- Scots remain the most upbeat with 71% expecting house prices in their area to rise over the next six months (down from 84% three months ago)
- English optimism has fallen the hardest with 62% predicting a house prices rise compared to 79% three-month ago
- Welsh are the most pessimistic on the chances of local property prices rising in the next 6 months with only 61% of Welsh homeowners predicting an increase versus 73% three months ago.
As always, please feel free to share and use this information, all we ask is that you credit the source as Zoopla.co.uk and link to either Zoopla.co.uk or blog.zoopla.co.uk. Thank you
Lily Allen’s £3m Cotswold home on Zoopla.co.uk
Smile singer, Lily Allen, isn’t moving to Ramsay St, but has just completed on a £3m house (that also comes with a 3-bed cottage) in the remote Gloucestershire village of Cranham (GL4) in the Cotswolds. It’s a sizeable pad, but needs to be – her first baby is due in February. She also has her Dad, Keith, just 10 miles away in the village of Minchinhampton.
The property, called Old Overtown House, has six bedrooms, five bathrooms and three reception rooms spread over three-storeys in a house that is thought to date from the 1600′s. It’s surrounded by a National Trust estate in an area of outstanding beauty and is rumoured to have stunning croquet lawns!
Here’s an aerial view taken from the property’s details page on Zoopla.co.uk (we list every UK property, not just those for sale or to rent)…and here’s a link to the Old Overtown House page on Zoopla.co.uk.
Average property values, according to Zoopla.co.uk, for Cranham, Gloucestershire are £441,123 with values having risen £2,440 (1.41%) in the last 12 months. In the last 5 years 22 properties have changed hands in Cranham with an average sold price of £440,590. Here’s the market overview page for Cranham.
If success is based on the length of driveway, then Lily has made it. The property has an incredibly long driveway – we estimate it’s nearly 1km. A quick look on Google Street View, which we have fully integrated into Zoopla.co.uk, reveals how long it is and interestingly, how far the Google Street View car was allowed to go up it. The official drive starts at the crossroads just by the Zoopla Zerif on the right of the image below.
The image at the top of this post was taken from Lily’s official website
Homes recover 50% of value lost during housing downturn
We have reached an important point in a market seeking direction and despite the most recent 16 months of gains, only half of the value lost in the prior 16 months has been recouped.
This juncture may well determine the direction of house prices for the months to come. Our data show us that we have come through two periods of equal length and opposing directions. UK house prices have risen steadily for the past 16 months, bouncing off their lows of March 2009 and recovering half of the value lost during the prior 16 month period of price declines from the November 2007 market peak.
It is entirely possible that we may now have a similar length period of time where the market hovers without a clear direction.
The average UK home is now worth £218,705, up £21,667 (11.02%) since March 2009. However this figure remains more than £20,000 below the November 2007 peak, when average house prices reached £239,063, showing that, despite the rebound over the last 16 months, only half the ground lost over the prior 16-month period has been made up.
England - prices have recovered more ground than elsewhere, having climbed 11.46% since March 2009, with the average home in England now worth £226,342, but still well below the level reached in November 2007 of £246,714.
Wales – prices have been much slower to rebound, up only 7.07% since March 2009 to a current average value of £154,521, a long way short of the £173,388 peak in November 2007.
Scotland – property values have climbed 9.12% on average to £156,217 over the past 16 months, having fallen 18.1% in the prior 16-month period when they reached a high of £174,805.
Whilst the dramatic fall in house prices during the 16 months from the November 2007 high to the March 2009 low affected all areas of the country, the rebound in the 16 months since has been far more selective.
South East – property prices have bounced back strongly and have regained most of the value lost during the downturn. House prices in the South East, which peaked at £291,120 in November 2007 had fallen sharply by 18.24% to £238,017 by March 2009, and have since risen by 17.57% to £279,848.
North East – in contrast the North East saw average house prices drop 16.11% from £182,390 in November 2007 to £153,002 in March 2009, and have since only managed to regain 4.98%, standing today at £160,627.
London – the market has seen the most dramatic turnaround, with average house prices today at new highs and above the levels seen in November 2007. Having fallen by 16.06% from a high of £410,577 in November 2007 to a low of £344,635 in March 2009, London house prices have made up all the ground lost in the downturn and now stand at £418,802. London house prices have risen by a remarkable 21.52% over the past 16 months.
Looking at property type…
The rebound in house prices since March 2009 has been strongest for semi-detached properties, which have risen by 12.83% over the past 16 months. The average semi is now worth £191,019. At the other end of the scale, flats across the UK have been much slower to rebound and have only gained 7.78% in value over the past 16 months, having fallen by 17.34% in the prior 16-month period. The average flat in Britain is now worth £199,573, down from a peak of £224,021 in Nov 2007.
Average house prices by Country
| Country | Jul 2010 | Mar 2009 | Last 16 months | Nov 2007 | Prior 16 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | £226,342 | £203,077 | +11.46% | £246,714 | -17.69% |
| Scotland | £156,217 | £143,166 | +9.12% | £174,805 | -18.10% |
| Wales | £154,521 | £144,315 | +7.07% | £173,388 | -16.77% |
Source: Zoopla.co.uk
Average house prices by Region
| Region | Jul 2010 | Mar 2009 | Last 16 months | Nov 2007 | Prior 16 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| London | £418,802 | £344,635 | +21.52% | £410,577 | -16.06% |
| SE England | £279,848 | £238,017 | +17.57% | £291,120 | -18.24% |
| E England | £233,776 | £208,322 | +12.22% | £259,967 | -19.87% |
| SW England | £225,773 | £194,662 | +15.98% | £238,044 | -18.22% |
| W Midlands | £174,269 | £165,332 | +5.41% | £202,139 | -18.21% |
| E Midlands | £161,919 | £153,204 | +5.69% | £184,474 | -16.95% |
| NE England | £160,627 | £153,002 | +4.98% | £182,390 | -16.11% |
| NW England | £160,071 | £142,532 | +12.31% | £170,199 | -16.26% |
| Yorks & Humber | £145,783 | £134,758 | +8.18% | £164,654 | -18.16% |
Source: Zoopla.co.uk
Average house prices by Property Type
| Property type | Jul 2010 | Mar 2009 | Last 16 months | Nov 2007 | Prior 16 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | £317,957 | £291,125 | +9.22% | £349,528 | -16.71% |
| Semi-detached | £191,019 | £169,304 | +12.83% | £204,522 | -17.22% |
| Terraced | £171,637 | £153,566 | +11.77% | £186,032 | -17.45% |
| Flats | £199,573 | £185,170 | +7.78% | £224,021 | -17.34% |
Source: Zoopla.co.uk
Are we on the (long and winding) road to recovery?
Whilst we are still a long way from the values seen before the credit crunch hit, house values appear to have begun a journey on the road (albeit a long one) to recovery.
Since March of this year the total value of the UK housing market has gained £250 billion – great news for homeowners and also means there will be fewer homeowners experiencing negative equity than there were six months ago.
This now takes the total value of the UK residential housing stock to a whopping £5.25 trillion, up over £250 billion (five times the wealth of Mr Bill Gates according to the new Forbes 400 list) from the recent lows in March this year; this figure still remains well below the market peak of over £6 trillion achieved in late 2007.
It’s all very well shouting about eye watering figures, but here at Zoopla.co.uk we’re more interested in telling you what this means for the value of YOUR home on YOUR street. On average the value of your home is likely to have risen £57 per day since March or just over £10,400 in six months – taking the value of the average British home to £203,622.
Whilst these figures are encouraging, and will come as a welcome relief to many homeowners, the figures are still down £31,592 from the December 2007 peak, when the average British house price stood at £235,214.
Home values in England are now up 2.23% since the start of the year and are beginning to recover even faster in Scotland with an increase of 5.25% since January. Average home values in Wales, however have been the slowest to show signs of improvement, up 0.95% in 2009.
If you live in Windsor & Maidenhead you have the biggest reason to celebrate – prices in this area over the last six-months have roared back by over 10.2%. However those living in Durham have less to cheer about as values in this area are the slowest recovering seeing values grow by only 1.1% since March and those living in Stroud in Gloucestershire where property values have fallen a further 3.7% since March are yet to experience any sort of recovery.
So, the next six months will be crucial in determining whether this slow recovery is here to stay or the beginning of a second dip. In the meantime don’t forget to claim your home and monitor the current value of your home on Zoopla.co.uk!
For more best performing and slowest recovering areas and towns, click here.
