Are We Over The Worst (Or Am I Losing It)?
Last week I asked whether it was time to start buying again. Among those who responded 65 per cent said no, the market has further to fall and 35 per cent said yes, we’re over the worst.
My own view is this: the market does have further to fall, but yes, we are over the worst (talk about having yer cake!) .
That might sound like lunacy, not least when you look at today’s report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. But with the benefit of hindsight we will, I suspect, view this RICS report as marker of the market’s low point.
FindaProperty’s editor considers the property space-time continuum (while riding a bike)
Why? The problem in recent months has been mortgage availability, and yesterday’s announcements should make it easier for home buyers to get their hands on the money they need to move.
Not as easy to get hold of as it has been in the past, for sure, but easier.
That will boost transaction levels and as a consequence I expect the supply/demand imbalance, which currently favours buyers, to start edging back in the direction of sellers.
Prices do still have further to fall, but the pace of the falls will ease (that’s already happening) as confidence gradually returns.
Come next spring – if (big if, I know) the mortgage companies deliver – we could be looking at a very different situation. I don’t expect prices to have recovered by then, but I do expect things to have stabilised.
So for buyers sitting on the sidelines, the coming months could present a real window of opportunity.
It is, as I noted last week, always better to buy close to the bottom than to end up on the wrong side of the revival. We’re not quite there yet, but we’re definitely heading in the right direction.